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尤瓦尔·赫拉利:冠状病毒之后的世界(中英双语)
他谈到疫情结束后,世界向何处去的问题,以及对目前各国没有统一行动的计划,反而各自为战、竞相关闭边境的担忧。这篇文章非常发人深省,强烈推荐。
冠状病毒之后的世界
作者:尤瓦尔·赫拉利 (Yuval Noah Harari) ,《人类简史》的作者
原载:2020年3月20日的《金融时报》
Humankind is now facing a global crisis. Perhaps the biggest crisis of our generation. The decisions people and governments take in the next few weeks will probably shape the world for years to come. They will shape not just our healthcare systems but also our economy, politics and culture. We must act quickly and decisively. We should also take into account the long-term consequences of our actions. When choosing between alternatives, we should ask ourselves not only how to overcome the immediate threat, but also what kind of world we will inhabit once the storm passes. Yes, the storm will pass, humankind will survive, most of us will still be alive — but we will inhabit a different world.
Under-the-skin surveillance
In order to stop the epidemic, entire populations need to comply with certain guidelines. There are two main ways of achieving this. One method is for the government to monitor people, and punish those who break the rules. Today, for the first time in human history, technology makes it possible to monitor everyone all the time. Fifty years ago, the KGB couldn’t follow 240m Soviet citizens 24 hours a day, nor could the KGB hope to effectively process all the information gathered. The KGB relied on human agents and analysts, and it just couldn’t place a human agent to follow every citizen. But now governments can rely on ubiquitous sensors and powerful algorithms instead of flesh-and-blood spooks.
为了遏制这种流行病,所有人都必须遵守某些准则。有两种主要方法可以实现此目的。一种方法是政府监视人民,并惩罚违反规则的人。如今,人类历史上首次,技术可以一直监控每个人。五十年前,克格勃无法每天24小时追踪2.4亿苏联公民,也不可能有效处理收集到的所有信息。克格勃依靠人类特工和分析师,不可能跟踪每个公民。但是现在,政府可以依靠无处不在的传感器和强大的算法,实现这个目标。
One of the problems we face in working out where we stand on surveillance is that none of us know exactly how we are being surveilled, and what the coming years might bring. Surveillance technology is developing at breakneck speed, and what seemed science-fiction 10 years ago is today old news. As a thought experiment, consider a hypothetical government that demands that every citizen wears a biometric bracelet that monitors body temperature and heart-rate 24 hours a day. The resulting data is hoarded and analysed by government algorithms. The algorithms will know that you are sick even before you know it, and they will also know where you have been, and who you have met. The chains of infection could be drastically shortened, and even cut altogether. Such a system could arguably stop the epidemic in its tracks within days. Sounds wonderful, right?
监控技术正以惊人的速度发展,十年前的科幻小说如今已成为日常新闻。作为一项思想实验,请考虑一个假设的政府,该政府要求每个公民每天都要佩戴生物特征识别手环,以监测24小时的体温和心率。所得数据通过政府算法进行存储和分析。这些算法甚至会在症状出现之前就知道你生病了,并且他们还将知道你去过哪里以及遇到了谁。感染链可以大大缩短,甚至完全切断。可以说,这样的系统可以在几天之内停止流行病的蔓延。听起来很棒,对吧?
Asking people to choose between privacy and health is, in fact, the very root of the problem. Because this is a false choice. We can and should enjoy both privacy and health. We can choose to protect our health and stop the coronavirus epidemic not by instituting totalitarian surveillance regimes, but rather by empowering citizens. In recent weeks, some of the most successful efforts to contain the coronavirus epidemic were orchestrated by South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. While these countries have made some use of tracking applications, they have relied far more on extensive testing, on honest reporting, and on the willing co-operation of a well-informed public.
实际上,要求人们在隐私和健康之间进行选择是问题的根本所在。因为这是一个错误的选择。我们可以并且应该同时享受隐私和健康。我们可以选择保护我们的健康的同时,阻止冠状病毒流行,而不是通过建立极权主义的监视制度,我们也可以选择增强公民的权力。最近几周,亚洲一些国家和地区精心实施了一些最成功的遏制冠状病毒流行的措施,它们虽然使用了跟踪应用程序,但更多地依赖于广泛的测试、诚实的报告以及有见识的公众的自愿合作。
But to achieve such a level of compliance and co-operation, you need trust. People need to trust science, to trust public authorities, and to trust the media. Over the past few years, irresponsible politicians have deliberately undermined trust in science, in public authorities and in the media. Now these same irresponsible politicians might be tempted to take the high road to authoritarianism, arguing that you just cannot trust the public to do the right thing.
The second important choice we confront is between nationalist isolation and global solidarity. Both the epidemic itself and the resulting economic crisis are global problems. They can be solved effectively only by global co-operation.
我们面临的第二个重要选择是在民族主义孤立与全球团结之间做选择。流行病本身和由此产生的经济危机都是全球性问题,只有全球合作才能有效解决这些问题。